A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
